Aryna Sabalenka at the US Open 2026: Draw, Path & Three-Peat Bid Explained

The 2026 US Open women's draw dropped on Thursday, and world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is chasing something no woman has done since Serena Williams: a third consecutive US Open title. Here's her opening opponent, her likely path to the final, and how the bookmakers rate her chances after a shaky run-up to New York.

Round 1: Sabalenka vs. Camila Osorio

Sabalenka opens her title defence against Camila Osorio, Colombia's national No. 1, in what will be Osorio's first-ever match on the US Open's biggest court. The two have met twice before - Sabalenka won in straight sets at Wimbledon 2021 and again at the 2023 Madrid Open - and this will be their first meeting on a hard court. For Osorio, ranked in the world's top 60, it's a huge opportunity regardless of the result: her best finish in New York is the second round, reached in both 2021 and 2022.

Sabalenka's Projected Path to the Final

Beyond the opener, the draw sets up a testing route. A potential third-round meeting with former Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova looms, followed by a possible fourth-round rematch with Diana Shnaider - the player who beat Sabalenka in the Roland Garros quarterfinals earlier this year. Sixth seed Linda Noskova, the reigning Wimbledon champion, is projected as a quarterfinal opponent.

Chasing a Historic Three-Peat

Sabalenka has won the last two US Open titles, and a third in a row would make her the first woman to three-peat in New York since Serena Williams' run from 2012 to 2014. It's a tall order even for the world No. 1: her build-up to this tournament has included an early exit in Cincinnati, where she lost in the round of 16 to Sara Bejlek, leaving some doubt over her form heading into the year's final Grand Slam.

The Betting Favourites

Despite the recent wobble, bookmakers still rate Sabalenka the clear favourite to win a third straight title, priced at +350. Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek follow closely behind at +450 apiece - Gauff arrives in form after beating Jessica Pegula in the Cincinnati final, while Swiatek strengthened her case with a title in Toronto. Pegula herself sits further back at +1000 after reaching the Cincinnati final. Elsewhere in the field, Elena Rybakina (Australian Open champion) and Mirra Andreeva (Roland Garros champion) add to a genuinely open-looking women's draw beneath Sabalenka at the top.

Tournament Details

The 2026 US Open runs at Flushing Meadows with a record $108 million prize pool - the largest in tennis - and each singles champion will earn $5.5 million. The women's singles final is scheduled for Saturday, September 12, with the men's final following on Sunday, September 13.

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